Have We Overreacted?

Up to now people worldwide and here at home have largely cooperated with government shutdowns, but things are changing. The economic cost has been unprecedented. More people have lost their jobs than did in the Great Depression. Small businesses people spent their lifetimes building have been severely hurt and some have been destroyed. Trillions in stock values have gone “Poof.” Almost every American life has been disrupted in some way. Backlash has begun around the country with demonstrations at various statehouses where Democrat governors ordered the strictest, most-extended shutdowns.

As we’re learning more about this virus, some are beginning to question whether it was all necessary. Sweden, for example, has allowed businesses and most schools to remain open and left it up to individual citizens how to respond. They’ve come under criticism from across Europe including from neighboring Norway, a very similar country in nearly every way, which shut down much as America has. Sweden wagered that most citizens would eventually get the virus anyway and it would achieve herd immunity more quickly while other countries extended their vulnerability.

By some calculations, Sweden has had more deaths than Norway per capita, but Covid-19 mortality statistics are worked out differently across the globe. Here in America, for example, deaths of people who never tested positive for Covid-19 are nonetheless counted as victims of the virus. Those who did test positive but who may have died of more serious co-morbidities are still counted as victims of Covid-19. As I wrote in last week’s column, our shutdown was largely prompted by a virus model by Neil Ferguson out of Oxford University that has since proven way overblown.

Neil Ferguson caused panic

We don’t yet know if Sweden’s bet will pay off. While its death rate is twice Denmark’s, it’s only half of France’s according to Vanity Fair last Friday. An Israeli study published last week indicates that the virus goes through all human populations in eight weeks regardless of whether a country shuts down or not. President Trump’s Covid-19 Task Force pats itself on the back for saving thousands of lives with its shutdown policies, but are they correct? If the Israeli model proves true, what’s the likelihood that Trump would ever admit he was wrong? In an election year?

Even less likely to admit it would be mainstream media. All through March and April, they’ve done little but spread fear and criticize Trump for not shutting down early enough or strictly enough. Some Libertarians have suggested that neither federal nor state governments have legitimate authority to shut down the country and lawsuits have been filed to challenge them. We have so far used computer models and algorithms to predict the path Covid-19 would take, but now we’re seeing evidence that many models were flawed.

No major media figure nor political leader has dared question whether this has all been necessary. Did total shutdown increase the likelihood of a second viral wave in the fall? We don’t know. Will Sweden’s milder approach decrease that likelihood? We don’t know that either. Political leaders with their medical advisors have been forced to make decisions based on incomplete data. To what degree will they be held responsible if subsequent data prove them wrong? We don’t know, but it’s a safe bet that political partisans will point fingers if they believe it will help them electorally.

As testing for both the virus and antibodies to it are administered more widely, we’re learning unexpected things. So far — and we still have a long way to go — we’re learning that many more of us have been exposed to Covid-19 than expected. It looks like upwards of 30% of Americans may have antibodies but few if any symptoms. Would this be good news or bad news?

Usually I watch Fox’s Bret Baier deliver the news at 6:00 PM weeknights, but he’s often preempted of late by President Trump and his virus team. Trump hogs the podium and repeats things so much that I’ve been switching over to CBS, ABC, and NBC. What strikes me most about network anchors there is their melodrama, especially when reporting on the virus, and wonder if it’s genuine or affected. I suspect the latter.

Swedish leaders and their medical advisors have withstood withering criticism for their outlier policies both from within Sweden and from across the globe. Whatever the outcome, they won’t avoid repercussions. It might be continued condemnation, but it might ultimately be praise. We don’t know yet. How much criticism will this smalltime columnist receive for even suggesting that American politicians and media may have overreacted at enormous cost to our economy and our day-to-day lives? We don’t know, but I’m sure I’ll find out very soon.

To Open Or Not To Open

This week I was determined to write about something other than the virus, but couldn’t make myself do so. More than two decades ago — way back in the 20th century as a matter of fact — I promised myself  I would write columns only about what was most on my mind any given week. I’d write only about what I wanted to write about, not what various editors wanted. That isn’t conducive to furthering a career as a columnist, but it s good for my equilibrium.

Often I start writing about something and as my fingers move around the keyboard, I’ll end up somewhere else and I think, “Where did that come from?” Writing is a way of thinking things through. What starts as a vague idea turns into something coherent as one constructs logical sentences with subject, verb, and direct object, then sequence them into paragraphs. So, what’s on my mind this week? The same thing that’s on everyone’s mind: the virus, but more specifically our individual and collective reactions to it. We’re all wondering when our lives will return to what they were, if they ever do.

Social distancing is easier for my wife and I as we spend most of our time with people to whom we’re closely related. I have a big family: six siblings, three children, six grandchildren, in-laws, as well as nieces and nephews too numerous to count. Several are in the health care professions and some of them are working directly with the virus. I worry about them and pray too. We exchange information I use to hone the working hypothesis to understand event around me. This is a new thing we’re dealing with, hence the moniker “novel” corona virus. Leaders from all over the political spectrum thought at first that this was just another flu. They made statements they now wish they didn’t. We all thought it killed only the elderly and weak, but have since learned that is not always true.

My daughter sent me this

Only three months ago, the World Health Organization said virus didn’t spread human-to-human. Now there are calls to defund the WHO and demands that its director resign. Only weeks ago someone at Oxford University projected over two million dead in the United States. According to the March 16 New York Times, that lead to the near-total shutdown of our lives and economy. Now we hear that projection was way overblown, but the restrictive policies we’re still living under are all based on that. So where do we go from here? Back to how we were?

Some say not until we have a vaccine, but that’s a year out at least. When we get herd immunity? We may be closer to that than we think with so few in California being hospitalized. Were they exposed earlier? We won’t know until they’re all tested. Should we have shut down earlier or has this all been an overreaction? We don’t know without more data. Who can reopen the country? The president alone? The governors? Both together? Democrat governors have been more restrictive than Republican governors. The left wants to maintain the shutdown. The right wants to open up. We had a total economic collapse but we may have a patchwork recovery.

Almost daily I watch Coronavirus Task Force press conferences on Fox because mainstream media don’t all carry them live. President Trump dominates, ,endlessly repeating how government response is terrific and everyone is doing a great job “like nobody’s ever seen before.” That’s true in the sense that never before have the president and governors shut down the entire country. Never before have we printed so much money so quickly. Never before have the stock market, GDP, and the employment tanked further or faster.

In this election year, Trump’s ace in the hole was a strong economy virtually guaranteeing his reelection. Since 2016, stories dominating news have been Russian collusion, emoluments, the 25th Amendment, Stormy Daniels, the Ukraine phone call, impeachment — stories that had Democrats and their mainstream media allies salivating. But none of it worked. Six weeks ago, Democrat hopes rested with Bernie and Biden and it didn’t look good for them at all.

Then, as if it dropped from the sky, the novel coronavirus appeared! Trump’s economy tanked and Democrat hopes were renewed. Now Bernie is gone but Biden looks hapless. Some say Democrats and their media allies are quietly pushing Andrew Cuomo to dislodge Biden at a virtual convention this summer. Liberals and conservatives both insist their policy recommendations are solely based on what’s good for the American people and have nothing to do with partisan politics. Some seem to believe that. Others do not.

Democrat governors say they decide when to open up. Trump says he does. We’ll see.

Cooperation Vs Coercion

Last week’s column described how Americans have largely cooperated with government-imposed shutdowns so far. Now I’m wondering how long they’ll continue doing so. I’m concerned about that for several reasons, the biggest of which is: how soon can federal relief money get into the hands of people who are living on the edge? Many if not most Americans live paycheck to paycheck and they have to eat.

While those checks comprise a big part of the trillions headed for needy Americans newly out of work, there are snags. Small businesses are promised loans enabling them to keep paying employees through the crisis so they won’t have to be laid off. The loans, if guidelines are followed, will not have to be paid back. But — and it’s a big but — what are the guidelines? Banks are leery because they remember being subsequently investigated for not vetting loan applicants closely enough during the TARP crisis in 2008/2009.

Locally, Norway Savings Bank has emailed its account holders about its participation in the PPP (Paycheck Protection Program) which is funneling the $349 billion authorized as part of the $2 trillion overall COVID-19 relief package. Small businesses can apply as of April 3rd and self-employed people may apply beginning April 10th. That’s good news, and came faster than I feared it might.

Monday I spoke to a small businessman running a retail business in western Maine with about a half-dozen employees. He has so far avoided furloughing anybody but cannot hold out indefinitely, so he called Norway Savings Bank and is waiting to hear back. The bank official he spoke to, with whom it seemed he was personally acquainted, indicated he was swamped with requests. That’s no shock, but how long will it take to process applications? How soon before money is in the hands of the newly unemployed?

Several times over the past few years I’ve written of America’s widening political divide, and it’s a frequent topic on my “Left & Right” community TV show — and that was all before the Corona Crisis. For the most part, those on both sides of the divide have cooperated, but there’s growing tension in spite of our shared danger. It’s in evidence during the daily COVID-19 press conferences which are frequently interrupted by snarky questions from left-wing reporters and angry answers from President Trump.

Though I’m not a golfer, I was miffed when Maine Governor Janet Mills closed golf courses. What’s the point? Golfers can easily maintain social distancing while playing and skip socializing in the clubhouse after. How is that any different from people going out for walks in the neighborhood? What is accomplished by the ban other than pissing off golfers? Tuesday I read in the Portland Press Herald that: “The City of Portland is closing two parking lots adjacent to the popular Back Cove Trail Tuesday to cut down on the number of people using the 3.6-mile path around the cove amid the coronavirus outbreak.”

The same day I read a legal notice in the Conway Daily Sun for arriving summer people in my town of Lovell. Lovell selectmen are telling those people they must: “…immediately self-quarantine for 14 days unless when engaging in Essential Services as defined in Executive Order 19 FY 19/20.”

Okay. I don’t like the tone, but it’s consistent with what most states are requiring of out-of-state visitors and property owners. But then the notice states: “A violation of this order may be charged as a Class E misdemeanor subject to a penalty of up to six months in jail and a $1000 fine.” Thus the tone gets even more authoritarian, but it doesn’t stop there.

It continues with: “This order may be enforced by local government officials pursuant to their authority to regulate the operation or occupancy of buildings.” So, their authority to regulate how structures are built through Planning Boards and Code Enforcement Officers is now extended to enforcing when and how out-of-state property owners may leave their buildings? It goes on still fiurther:”The Selectmen will be monitoring visitors coming into the Town of Lovell and enforcing this Executive Order to protect public health and safety,” 

There’s no police force in Lovell. Will the selectmen be asking the county sheriff, the state police, or town constables to arrest violators? What about people who grocery shop in North Conway, NH? That’s out of state. Must they quarantine themselves after putting their groceries away. Instead of threatening to arrest people, how about just asking them to cooperate? That’s what has worked across the nation up to now.

Which brings me to another point. Am I the only one worried about the increasing power of government to encroach on our basic civil liberties in the name of public health? How easily will they relinquish power when the virus goes away?

Can We All Keep Getting Along?

It’s remarkable how well people are cooperating with government orders about how to conduct our entire lives. If you’d asked me hypothetically a few months ago to predict how the public would react, I would never have imagined the degree of collaboration we’ve seen so far. Driving back and forth between Maine’s rural mountains and coastal areas each week I see hardly anyone on the roads.

Oxford Street Shelter (From Portland Press Herald)

There are exception, however. I noticed homeless men congregating closely together near Portland’s Bayside neighborhood where soup kitchens and shelters are located. They were commiserating in small groups of six or eight on the sidewalks and touching each other frequently. And, we’ve all seen footage of college students at Florida beaches. These two otherwise dissimilar groups are both wholly absorbed in their own desires and oblivious to the needs of the public at large. Everyone else I observed was maintaining government-advised social distance.

During a community TV show “Left & Right” episode in the early stages of the pandemic, my guests and I speculated on the degree to which the issue might become politicized. One guest was sure politics would influence governmental policies but I expressed cautious optimism that political camps would put aside rivalries for the good of the country. That slim hope has shown little fruition, however. At all levels — local, state, national, and international — many politicians and media personalities have been indulging their animosities.

During daily presidential press conferences on the virus most questioners are looking for facts, but there are many caustic, snarky questions from the usual suspects. Never one to let a real or perceived slight go unanswered, the president responds in kind. Resulting exchanges more closely resemble those of squabbling siblings at the supper table than professionals dealing with a crisis.

No one doubts the virus originated in China but it’s given different names. I first heard of it as the Corona Virus, then as COVID-19, then Wuhan Virus according to the city in which it was first detected. Then Trump called it the China Virus around the same time Chinese government officials claimed it originated in the USA — although there’s no evidence to support that. Then Trump-hating media personalities in the US accused Trump of racism for calling it the China virus.

Although some in media and politics have compared the pandemic to World War II, any student of history would consider that a stretch. There was precious little politicization of WWII. Before Pearl Harbor there was, yes, but afterward American patriotism was so strong hardly anyone dared utter a critical remark. Longtime-leftist radio broadcaster and author Studs Terkel wrote a book calling it “The Good War” because everyone in America, regardless of political stripe, agreed that it had to be fought and won. It won a Pulitzer.

Virtually every historical event since WWII, however, has been politicized, so I guess I was naive to hope this pandemic wouldn’t be. There was a short period of non-partisanship following September 11, but it only lasted  a week or two. That TV show I mentioned was only a month ago but it seems like a year. I speculated that if I was wrong and partisanship did emerge, whoever was guilty of it would pay a political price on election day.

There are seven months to go before the first Tuesday in November, an eternity in political terms, and I think both sides will pay a price. Recent polls indicate mainstream media, together with their Democrat allies, will pay the most. Expect accusations in the form of snarky questions to escalate and be echoed by Democrats in Congress. Trump will continue his fake news accusations and political polarization will exacerbate. 

The $2 trillion bill passed last week was delayed by attempted Democrat add-ons that had no connection to virus relief. Although it was the most expensive piece of legislation in history, still more such bills are predicted before the election. So far, there has been little civil unrest in spite of unprecedented restrictions on public freedoms and increased public distress due to the economic effects of shutdown. Will that continue through April or beyond?

There are signs of fraying. High-end stores have been closed for weeks but lately owners are boarding them up in several cities. Do they expect looting? Will printing $2 trillion cause an inflationary spiral? Will $4 trillion? $8 trillion? There was a mile-long food line in Pittsburgh the other day. Police and food store workers are front-line with medical personnel and they’re getting fatigued.

If we all lose someone in a mounting death toll, perhaps our shared grief will strengthen community bonds. That’s one good thing that can occur in war against a common enemy.

We'll Know By Summer

“How were you affected by the 1918 Swine Flu epidemic?”

After returning to the classroom in 1979 to teach history, one of the first assignments I gave was for students to find someone 70 years old or older and ask a series of questions. Interview subjects would have been born in 1909 or earlier and, if they lived in New England, would almost certainly have known people who died in that plague. Its American epicenter was Fort Devens in central Massachusetts.

It was called "Camp Devens" then.

About 850 soldiers died there in 1918 after it spread from Commonwealth Pier in Boston where the first recorded outbreak seems to have occurred according to the New England Historical Society. The American version of the epidemic eventually killed 675,000 Americans and perhaps 100 million worldwide. Even more surprising was that the most vulnerable demographic was young adults — about 10% died globally.

The 1918 virus seems to have been the worst plague in history.

In last week’s column "Between Now and November" on the presidential campaign I added a paragraph at the end about what might threaten President Trump’s biggest advantage — our strong economy. I suggested the Corona Virus, now called Covid19, might be that threat. After only a week, it’s virtually certain. At this writing (Monday midday), the stock market and bond market are both crashing. Traveling in India, President Trump claimed the virus is a short-term problem that won’t have a lasting effect on the world economy. “I think it’s a problem that’s going to go away,” he said — this according to zerohedge.com which has become my go-to site on the virus.

Trump has said a lot of stupid things, but I believe that statement will come back to haunt him.

Epidemiologists have more questions than answers about this newest plague and that’s because China, where it originated, is a closed society with a government which controls information. It’s lying about what has been going on. Did Covid19 originate when Chinese gourmets ate bat soup as some suggest? Or, did it escape from a bioweapons lab in Wuhan as others suggest? We don’t know.

People exposed to the virus have been quarantined for 14 days to see if they show symptoms, but reports the past few days indicate that quarantine should be extended because some victims have gone 27 days before symptoms manifest. Can the virus be contained? Doubts are rising as fast as the virus is spreading — at lightening speed. Today (Monday mid afternoon) the World Health Organization is announcing that the virus is not yet pandemic — but we all kind of know it is, right? Said WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus today: “Does this virus have pandemic potential? Absolutely. Are we there yet? From our assessment not yet.”

South Korean at Jerusalem's Wailing Wall

How soon will it affect us here in America? Yesterday I read a report that South Korean Catholics who were visiting crowded holy sites in Israel returned home and tested positive for the virus. Israel then announced it would ban South Korean tourists. I texted the article to my sister and brother-in-law who were on tour visiting those crowded holy sites in Israel and they hadn’t heard anything about it. Then I waited to hear if they were allowed to board their flight from Tel Aviv to Newark, NJ. They told me tourists with whom they were traveling were going on to Jordan and were subjected to health checks at the border. This morning I learned they landed in Newark and were awaiting a flight to Boston.

Yeah, it’s affecting us here and it’s only the beginning.

China’s economy is tanking. Car sales have dropped 92% for February. As of February 13, China has virtually stopped importing crude oil. Tankers are backed up offshore. Since China makes so many products we buy including iPhones, we’re bound to be strongly affected here in America. The supply chain of vital components for products manufactured here in the USA will be slowing down and cut off as well. Japan may cancel the Olympics scheduled this summer. The Epoch Times this morning (Tuesday) quoted Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley:“80 percent of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients are produced abroad, the majority in China and India.”

We know, even if Trump doesn’t, there will be economic turmoil worldwide, but we don’t know yet how many of us will die. We in the USA and Europe are better equipped to treat people than third-world countries in Africa so our survivability rate is likely to be better. It seems that a percentage of those who become infected will die, but what is that percentage? We just don’t know because the Chinese Communist Party controls the flow of vital information on Covid19 and spins it for its own political purposes.

Eventually I had to drop the Swine Flu question from the elderly interviews as those old enough to remember it died off. We can only hope Covid19 doesn’t kill as many of us as that plague did a century ago. It’s likely we will know by summer.