Tuesday, May 15, 2018

My Working Hypothesis

Shenanigans in our federal government are so numerous and they’re being exposed so rapidly that’s it’s very hard to keep up, much less to make sense of it all. Several months ago I developed a working hypothesis — a theoretical framework — to put new information into a plausible context. Here it is: Officials in the Obama Administration, together with their allies in mainstream media, the Clinton campaign, and “never Trumpers” in the Republican establishment, have been working to sabotage first Donald Trump’s campaign, and now his presidency.

I realize that to some I sound like a conspiracy nut who should be fitted for a tinfoil hat, but I haven’t had to change my hypothesis as new information emerges. It all fits. Six months ago I would have considered the above paragraph ridiculous. I never believed it could get this bad, but now I’m thinking it could be even worse. Did leftist Democrats in charge of our federal government weaponize our intelligence community to use against an opposing party candidate for president? Evidence is mounting and the question becomes: Who was involved? Many names we already know. Eventually we’ll be resurrecting the refrain from the Watergate investigation: “What did the [now former] president know and when did he know it?”

The latest datum is a plausible claim that Obama’s FBI planted a spy in the Trump campaign sometime around July, 2016. It could even have been even before Trump won the Republican nomination but neither the FBI nor the Department of Justice (DOJ) will reveal either the spy’s identity or the timing of his implantation. Both the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal reported on this last week but neither names him. Kim Strassel, who wrote the WSJ piece, said she believed she knew his identity but couldn’t completely verify it.

However, the anonymous source who calls himself “Sundance” at the Conservative Tree House web site does name him: Stefan Halper. So does The Daily Caller. A background article on Halper indicates he worked in three or four Republican Administrations from Nixon to Bush, including several campaigns but I had never heard of him. This is big, but you’d never know it if you get all your news from mainstream media (MSM). Except for the Washington Post, they’re giving it a good leaving alone.

When President Trump tweeted that President Obama was wiretapping Trump Tower, MSM outlets too numerous to list here ridiculed Trump and insisted it was an outrageous allegation for which there was no evidence. It was eventually proven true, however, when we learned about the “Trump Dossier” and its use to obtain a FISA warrant to surveil Trump’s campaign. We only know about that because of digging by Devin Nunes and his committee — and he only started investigating after Trumps wiretapping tweet March 4, 2017. He’s still at it.

Nunes has gathered lots of evidence but he’s still being stonewalled at FBI and DOJ. According to the Washington Post:

A subpoena that House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) issued to the Justice Department last week made a broad request for all documents about an individual [the implanted spy] who people close to the matter say is a sensitive, longtime intelligence source for the CIA and FBI. The Justice Department has refused to provide the documents. Intelligence officials say the material could jeopardize the source, a U.S. citizen who has aided the special counsel investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 campaign.

President Trump, however, can force DOJ to declassify any DOJ documents or release them to Congress. So, why doesn’t he? Rush Limbaugh speculated on his program last Friday that Trump wants it all to play out on its own, that he wants his base to see him as the persecuted victim of a witch hunt by his opposition — the MSM and “The Swamp.” If Limbaugh is right, that wouldn’t necessarily negate my working hypothesis, but it’s troubling. Why not expose it all now? Is Trump playing “Rope-a-Dope” with his enemies? Is he timing the release for just before the mid-term elections? Is he waiting for a new John Dean character to emerge from the Deep State? For the “Why doesn’t he?” question, all I can do is speculate.

But for now, consider how MSM would react if there were evidence that George W. Bush’s FBI planted a spy in the Obama campaign, then used a bogus dossier for a warrant to wiretap his offices. What if the “national security” justification for all this turned out to be completely fabricated? That’s how this whole thing is shaping up, but you’d never know it if you got all your news from the New York Times and the alphabet networks.

Will continuing events prove it necessary to modify my hypothesis? We’ll see.


Uber_Fritz said...


Great piece uncovering the tip of the “berg.” And your arguments are based on factual patterns,

By the way, HRC is dangling from another twig! Because she admitted being a Capitalist, it is her belief that she lost an enormous number of votes. Well, we know her statement referring to Capitalism is truthful, but in her case such admissions are as scarce as hen’s teeth! I know because we raise some chickens and I have personally checked!

Anonymous said...

“Shenanigans in our federal government are so numerous and they’re being exposed so rapidly that’s it’s very hard to keep up”

You sure have that right!

But the only person that is “sabotaging” Donald Trump is Donald Trump. Would you also claim that the “deep state” sabotaged Nixon?

The absurd claim that Obama wiretapped Trump still gets a 4-Pinnochio lie rating if fact checked, although I realize that tinfoil hats still sometimes fall over one’s eyes when they try to fact check this themselves.

SO keep waiting for the “rope-a-dope” as Trump get’s taken down for his many illegal, immoral and Un-American shenanigans.

It looks like Tom is watching as much Fox News as Trump himself. What a sad little narrow minded reality-free, fantasy zone that is.

Montedoro44 said...

All this speculation is well worth considering, at least taking seriously as possible -- something that not all of your commenters are able/willing to do. To not even notice that there is a double standard in legal treatment of suspected behaviors confirms a deep bias. It is hard to believe that those who deny all possibility of Democrat wrongdoing are honest, rather easier to explain it as anything-goes-to-destroy-Trump.

Love the Nixobama photo!!!

Anonymous said...

What I don't understand is why would the Russians want Trump to win rather than Clinton? She is obviously more aligned ideologically to Putin than the capitalist Trump. Plus, her foundation already benefited from the Obama administration’s decision to approve Rosatom’s purchase of Uranium One. She'd be in a better position as the POTUS for her and her cronies to benefit even more. What am I missing other than the mainstream media's obvious bias and cover?


Anonymous said...

Former U.S. officials who worked on Russia policy with Clinton say that Putin was personally stung by Clinton’s December 2011 condemnation of Russia’s parliamentary elections, and had his anger communicated directly to President Barack Obama. They say Putin and his advisers are also keenly aware that, even as she executed Obama’s “reset” policy with Russia, Clinton took a harder line toward Moscow than others in the administration. And they say Putin sees Clinton as a forceful proponent of “regime change” policies that the Russian leader considers a grave threat to his own survival.

As to why he has taken to Trump, the simple and obvious factor is that they both favor autocrat type ruling...they are both "strongman" thugs. Also, I would say there is a very good chance that Putin has something on Trump, whether it is financial or sexual, and can use it as blackmail. Or, another obvious, Putin sees Trump as a dim-witted man with no values or morals, and can be easily manipulated through his ego.

The only thing Charles is missing is everything that Fox will not tell you - the reality of the whole thing.

Common said...

Trump is being railroaded and sabotaged, just like Bernie Madoff was! All his connections with Russia and his many, many lies about them are all very innocent. I'm sure he has good reasons for his lies. So what if the Russians offered help to win the election and the campaign accepted the help? So what if foreign powers led by autocrats interfere in US elections? Freakin' liberal snowflakes need to get over it and start listening to Fox news!

Reality said...

If the Great Orange Turd had any documents he could have released that would help him he would do it in a heartbeat. The man has nothing, and is nothing. But he most certainly is going down. How strange that we went from one of our countries greatest presidents to by far the worst in history. Fitting that our reality TV star in office makes such enthralling reality tv!

Anonymous said...

Hmmm, it seems there really IS a horrible conspiracy going on with the investigation....


Anonymous said...

The cartoon with the paper saying "Media Defeats Trump" is hilarious in light of the fact that it was Fake News stories planted all over the internet by Russians and their (un)American right wing helpers about Hillary that won Trump the election!!!!

Anonymous said...

Our sleazy chickenshit "leader" does not even apologize or take any action when a staffer mocks a dying war hero?????

CaptDMO said...

"...a conspiracy nut who should be fitted for a tinfoil hat,..."?
Make mine an aluminum foil tricorn please.

Anonymous said...

Hilarious that conspiracy nuts like Tom are still grasping on to far-fetched fantasies of Obama getting caught up in some scandal!! Ignoring the muddy, swampy creature that is currently in the White House and instead trying to shift focus to Obama....it drives the alt-right crazy that Obama was such a scandal free President, and such a dignified President with morals. I love it!

Brian said...

Oh, the dominos are falling alright! I don't think Tom is going to like it though. Watching the guilty and their toadies trying to play the victim and attack our nations law enforcement agencies is insanely pathetic. It is so much fun watching them all squirm and desperately try and twist facts and reality! It is like if Cosby started squealing about how some other comedian in the past was the rapist that should be investigated, not him. Cosby, like Trump, has his band of supporters that will never admit reality. Cosby has compared himself to Nelson Mandela - the same level of delusion as Trump. C'mon people, get a little dignity, show you have some morals and values. You are a laughingstock to most of the population now, and will continue to be throughout history.

Tom McLaughlin said...

Brian: in a few weeks you're going to look back at what you wrote above and realize how wrong you are. My working hypothesis will hold up. If you're willing to look at reality full in the face, you're going to need to construct a new world view.

Many of the people you admire in "our nation's law enforcement agencies" are going to be indicted. It's all backfiring on them. It's all unraveling.

Brian said...

Tom, if that happens I will man up and admit my foolishness. I hope you can do the same if it goes otherwise. No whining, no excuses, no continued denial.

Brian said...

Man up? So if it turns out you have been overdosing on misinformation from within your echo chamber I am guessing you will try and squirm out of it?

Jim said...

Tom - You can use these links to add Trump himself to your list of those working to sabotage his presidency:


and though a bit outdated:



Anonymous said...

If Tom is relying on what Nunes is up to in order to keep his desperate hopes alive, then he may as well man up and admit now that he is out of touch with reality. Nunes has accomplished nothing.

Anonymous said...

This is nothing (but a distraction tactic), but you’d never know it if you get all your news from Alt-Right Media.

Brian said...

Great advice to Trump and people like Trumpette Tom, from Republican Rex Tillerson:

"If our leaders seek to conceal the truth, or if we as the people become accepting of alternative realities that are no longer grounded in facts, then we as American citizens are on a pathway to relinquishing our freedom. When we go wobbly on the truth, we go wobbly on America."

Always good to see Republicans stand up to the radicals.

Paul K. said...

Donald Trump’s election has never been about political ideology or parties because the man has no political ideology or party. He aligns himself wherever the wind happens to blow.

His election is about perception. Truth. Facts.

They believe that hundreds of other media outlets are all in cahoots to “get” this President, and pull off the most impossibly coordinated ruse of all time. To Trump supporters, Fox News is the only network of absolute truth.

I have no problem admitting when I don’t know something, or may be wrong about something. I am not experiencing some sort of mental incapacitation. I am able to distinguish when a story has consistency across many different networks and newspapers, and also able to distinguish when one channel is reporting an alternate reality.

Donald Trump is a mirror for those who support him with blind devotion. I see a common thread among his supporters and Fox News watchers: the fear of being embarrassed for having bought into a total crock, and, the fear of being ‘wrong.’

Does the latter sound familiar? Who is our President? A man who can never admit to the slightest mistake (see “covfefe”). A man who gets flustered and ends conversations when he’s challenged and can’t support his own thoughts. A man who can never admit when he is wrong or doesn’t know something. It would shatter his whole being. That is part of his psychosis.
I’ve read enough about Trump’s history to surmise that he’s always known, on some level, that he’s not bright. That’s why he has to “puff up” and present himself as the greatest and smartest guy that ever walked the face of the earth. This has been Donald Trump’s way of surviving since he was very young and he never evolved out of it.

Donald Trump, Fox News and others are teaching some valuable lessons, albeit in a totally back-asswards way. Someday soon, this will be more evident. When that day comes, I hope most of his supporters are in a safe place. For those who hear it, the wake up call is going to be very powerful and painful.

Brian said...

So, we see who is not man enough.....

CaptDMO said...

"I hope most of his supporters are in a safe place"
Oh, we've SEEN safe spaces, and we know who they're for.

Anonymous said...

Oh, the far right have taken over "safe places" in a big way. They feel they are being attacked and picked on anytime somebody points out the flaws in Trump or challenges their view from inside their safe media bubble, where they are told what they want to hear. They see no such thing as fair criticism. They are scared to venture out into the real world and face reality so they stay where they feel safe.

Tom McLaughlin said...

Interesting comment coming from someone who hides in anonymity.

Anonymous said...

You pipe in here with a non-sequitur, but earlier you declined the chance to stand up like a man and take responsibility if your world view proves to be fake. Interesting.

Montedoro44 said...

Anonymous, it is one thing to despise, hate, ridicule or otherwise insult people whose worldview opposes yours, but your statements above,

> They feel they are being attacked and picked on anytime somebody points out the flaws in Trump or challenges their view from inside their safe media bubble

> They are scared to venture out into the real world and face reality so they stay where they feel safe.

are, in the face of violence perpetrated against those people -- preventing them from public speaking, pressuring colleges, hotels, et al., to disinvite them because of safety issues, shouting & shutting their events down when they do appear, forcing them to hire bodyguards -- show that you are blinded by your hatred and so your alternate reality makes you a comic figure and dismissable. A pity; you probably do have the ability to engage in civil discourse. If you said anything here of value, it is hidden by your pie-throwing; you embarrass serious leftists, and for others you are a poster-child for what has become of the once-decent left.

Anonymous said...

You really want to get into a tit-for-tat about Trump supporter violence compared to liberal violence? Go back to your safe place and do some research. Ooops, the alt-right safe place does not allow discussion about reality.




It seems you are blinded by your hatred and so your alternate reality makes you a comic figure and dismissable. Your saying that sounded like Trump whining about Obama's golfing.

It's a shame what the radicals from the alt-right are doing to a once respectable Republican party.

Tom McLaughlin said...

If we're so dismissible here, why don't you go elsewhere?

Anonymous said...

Trying to crack through some bubbles and let in the bright light of reality so you can join the real world be dismissible no longer!

Brian said...

Two weeks ago Tom said:

"Brian: in a few weeks you're going to look back at what you wrote above and realize how wrong you are."

Still waiting.....but I think even you have admitted by now, at least to yourself, that you were simply tricked by the propaganda machine. But I'm patient.

Brian said...

Still waiting....

Brian said...

Hmmm, this has been a long "few weeks"

Time to realize how wrong you were