Cheap Talk

Actions speak louder than words. Talk is cheap. Put up or shut up. Prove it.

There are many ways to say it, but they all come down to one thing: Do you mean what you say? For anyone claiming to be a leader that means warn once, then execute. Never bluff.

When Saddam Hussein first took steps develop nuclear capabilities in the Iraqi desert, Israel sent jets in to destroy his facility at Osirak. In and out went the planes — a surgical strike. That was June, 1981. When Bashar Assad built a nuclear facility in Syria called Al Kibar for the same purpose, Israeli jets destroyed that too. In and out went the planes — another surgical strike. That was September, 2007.

Syria's Al Kibar destroyed

With the destruction of Osirak, Israeli Prime Minister Menachim Begin established his doctrine: “prevent confrontation states … from gaining access to nuclear weapons.” Both Iraq and Syria had tried to invade Israel after declaring it had no right to exist. 

When the Kim dynasty was threatening the United States and simultaneously building nuclear facilities in North Korea, American military officials advised sending jets in to destroy them. President Clinton instead deployed former President Carter and a lead negotiator named Wendy Sherman for talks. They came up with the 1994 deal under which North Korea promised to freeze its nuclear program. In return, the United States gave $4 billion to develop nuclear reactors that would ostensibly be for generating electricity. We also gave them $100 million in oil and some food.

Then in 1998, two things happened: One — North Korea was caught sending missile technology to Pakistan, itself a nuclear power. Two — it tested an ICBM. Four years later in 2006, North Korea tested its first nuclear weapon. That same year, Israeli intelligence photos showed North Korean workers helping to build the Al Kibar reactor in Syria the Israelis later destroyed. Clearly, the Clinton/Carter/Sherman agreement was a disaster and North Korea couldn’t be trusted. In the middle of all this, however, Carter won the 2002 Nobel Peace Prize.

All through the George W. Bush administration, aid to North Korea was suspended and restarted, talks were restarted and suspended and restarted over and over. Long story short, North Korea continued testing missiles and nuclear devices, just as it is today. One thing Bush did was declare Iran, Iraq, and North Korea “The Axis of Evil” which the left criticized as too simplistic. President Obama repeated the bluffing and talking cycle during his eight years with about the same results.

Hey, what could go wrong?

Thus did the Kim Jong Il learn how gullible the United States and the United Nations could be. He continued promising to stop developing nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them — and the USA continued sending aid for his starving citizens. When he wasn’t making fools of US presidents, he would stay up late watching old Daffy Duck cartoons. Meanwhile, his chubby son Kim Jong Un was taking notes.

So were the Mullahs in Iran. They played the same game with Presidents Bush and Obama and got everything they wanted. Obama even used the same chief negotiator, Wendy Sherman, that President Clinton used for the 1994 debacle. Obama and Kerry insist Iran will not have nukes for ten or fifteen years. Can we trust Iran to comply until then? About as much as we can trust North Korea — which is not at all. We cannot send inspectors into Iran to verify compliance because Iran inspects itself under the Wendy Sherman/John Kerry agreement — and they get back their $150 billion in frozen assets up front.

Why didn’t anyone get tough with the Kims? Former Trump advisor Steve Bannon said out loud what everyone suspected just before he resigned: “Until somebody solves the part of the equation that shows me that 10 million people in Seoul don’t die in the first 30 minutes from conventional weapons, I don’t know what you’re talking about. There’s no military solution here; they got us.” He was talking, of course, about the 10,000 mobile artillery pieces aimed at Seoul, South Korea. We have no way of neutralizing them.

How about in Iran? Were we ever able to take out Iranian nukes militarily? Yes, but not without pain. Iran has Hezbollah proxy armies in Lebanon and Syria ready to use rockets and other assets against Israel, not to mention another proxy army in Gaza under Hamas. Nonetheless, Israel was ready and willing to attack Iran’s nuke facilities just as it had Iraq’s and Syria’s. Saudi Arabia would have allowed Israeli planes to fly over its air space to Iran. If the USA had supplied two things: in-air refueling for Israeli jets and bunker-busting technology for destroying underground facilities, Israel would have attacked. Many expected President Bush to help out, but he never did. Nobody ever expected President Obama to.

In Bush’s Axis of Evil triumvirate, North Korea has nukes and Iran will soon. Thanks to Israel, Iraq won’t. Now it’s all in Trump’s hands.

Agreement Designed For Iran To Get Nuke -- Ted Cruz

Last Tuesday’s interview with Ted Cruz was the one I was waiting for. He’s the most conservative candidate in the race and I’ve leaned toward him from the beginning. But I got only one question. I asked him if he knew who the 12th Imam was, the Mahdi, the figure Iranian President Achmadinejad would invoke each time he spoke at the UN.

“I do,” he said right away.

Then I asked him if he knew the significance of Iranian belief in the Mahdi for American policy. Well, did he ever! I’d asked the question of at least five other presidential candidates and Senator Cruz’s answer was by far the broadest and deepest. He hit my question out of the park and the ensuing discussion took up much of the interview.

“It’s an important question because it helps understand the views of the Ayatollah Khomenei,” said Cruz. “The 12th Imam, the Mahdi, comes in an apocalyptic final battle where they believe he will usher in the victory of Islam worldwide. And it’s one of the reasons why a nuclear Iran is, I believe, the greatest national security threat facing the country. And, just a couple of weeks ago we had a moment that really drew it in sharp relief — the magnitude of the threat — which was North Korea allegedly testing a hydrogen bomb. We don’t have that confirmed but they appeared to be testing a hydrogen bomb… If you look at North Korea, and go back to the 1990s when the Clinton Administration relaxed sanctions against North Korea — led the entire world in relaxing sanctions — billions of dollars flowed into North Korea in exchange for a promise not to develop nuclear weapons. They turned around and took those billions of dollars and developed nuclear weapons.

“The lead negotiator for that North Korea deal under the Clinton Administration, was a woman named Wendy Sherman. When President Obama was elected, Obama and Hillary Clinton recruited Wendy Sherman to come back and be the lead negotiator in Iran. She’s literally the only person on the planet who screwed this up once…”

“And she got a second shot!” said Lloyd Jones, sports reporter for the Sun.

“…and she got a second shot,” Cruz echoed. “And she made the exact same mistake. She negotiated effectively the same deal — except in this case it’s a hundred and fifty billion dollars going to Iran for the same empty promises which nobody believes.”

Then he turned to me again and said: “But your question highlights why Iran is qualitatively more dangerous, which is — Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong Un were and are both radical and extreme  — both father and son are both megalomaniacal narcissists. Which means, hopefully some degree of rational deterrence is possible because they both agree if they ever use  a nuclear weapon, their regime would be over. The danger with Khomenei, and this goes to the apocalyptic, theocratic view of Khomenei and the mullahs, is that they glorify death and suicide. They welcome the apocalypse to bring the coming of the Mahdi.”

“And in my view,” Cruz continued, “the North Korean nuclear test is essentially a crystal ball foreshadowing where this country goes if Hillary is elected. That in three, four, five years, Iran, just like North Korea will be testing a nuclear weapon but, given the apocalyptic views, the religious death cult of the leadership, I think the odds are unacceptably high that instead of testing the weapon underground, they’ll test it in the skies of Tel Aviv, or New York, or Los Angeles.”

Mark Guerringue, Sun publisher, said: “Well you’re obviously against the agreement, but what about the agreement? The Iranians… I mean basically you believe the Atomic Agency — the International Atomic Energy Agency — the six countries: Russia, China, France, Germany, Britain, us, that we’ve got a program. You don’t believe it?”

“I do not believe it — at all,” said Cruz… While the deal was being negotiated, ambassadors would come by my office complaining about the enormous strong-arming and pressure that was coming from the Obama Administration to get on board. This was the Administration that drove our allies, did real damage by unraveling the international consensus on sanctions. But this agreement was designed on its face to facilitate Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon.”

“Why do I say that? Number one: we were initially promised anytime, anywhere inspections. That promise got quickly discarded. Under the terms of the agreement, the Iranians get effectively 24 days notice before any inspection. Now, if you’re designing an inspection regime — and I’ve used the analogy before — Imagine if the state of New Hampshire passed a law that said before you can execute any search warrant on a drug lord, you have to give them 24 days notice about the place to be searched. Now that’s an inspection regime that is guaranteed to insure you’ll never find anything. Even the dumbest drug lord on earth, with 24 days notice, would avoid anything being discovered — but even worse, under the terms of the agreement there are some locations that are completely off limits from inspections. And, there are other locations that the Iranians are instructed to inspect themselves!

“Anyone looking at this agreement knows, to a metaphysical certainty, Iran will use this agreement to acquire nuclear weapons. I would note — while this agreement was being negotiated — the State Department is sitting down with the Iranians — a senior Iranian general tweets: “The annihilation of Israel is not negotiable.”

“No one is disagreeing there are radical elements in Iran,” said Sun Publisher Mark Guerringue.

“No-no-no-no,” said Cruz. “It’s not ‘radical elements.’ It’s the leadership. This is not a democratic world where you’re worried: ‘there’s this faction.’ This is an absolute dictatorship. The Ayatollah Khomenei — what he wants — he is the ‘Supreme Leader.’ So it’s not elements. It is the Iranian Revolution that has seized… It’s a theocratic, homicidal — in the middle of this agreement, while it was being negotiated, the Iranian navy set up a mock US Navy ship, did war exercises bombing it. That didn’t cause the Obama Administration to stop. In the middle of negotiating this agreement, the Ayatollah Khomenei, to the assembled masses, joined them in burning American flags and Israeli flags and chanting: ‘Death to America!’ Literally — we’re negotiating with someone who is chanting ‘Death to America!’ and burning our flag!”

And then last week, Iran seizes two Navy ships, does everything they can to humiliate ten sailors — brought them to their knees to humiliate them — and the Obama Administration not only thanks them, heaps praise upon them, and then is now releasing billions of dollars and Iran today is the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism! This week we saw something that has never occurred in the history of… which is, the Obama Administration has become biggest financier of Radical Islamic terrorism. We know with absolute certainty that Khomenei is going to take those billions and give money to Hamas, to Hezbollah, to the Houthis, to radical Islamic terrorists. And they will use that money to murder Americans.”

The full Ted Cruz interview podcast

I could go on because I’ve only transcribed half of Cruz’s answer to my question. Suffice it to say that I have no more doubt about who I’m supporting for president in 2016.

John Kasich, Establishment Republican

Near the end of the John Kasich interview at the Conway Daily Sun last Friday, I asked him what was a president’s single greatest responsibility. “To lead,” he said, “using the bully pulpit.” Then he said his wife told him that, as governor, he was the “father of Ohio” and he should act like it. That got a chuckle from everyone present. “You have to carry yourself a certain way.”

Okay. We were all young and stupid once

Most would argue the president’s single greatest responsibility is to protect the nation as commander-in-chief, and that’s the answer I was looking for. His “To lead” answer could, I suppose, be manifested by “support[ing] and defend[ing] the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic,” as federal officials must swear to do. 

Governor John Kasich seems like a nice guy, easy to talk to and easy to like. As a presidential candidate, however, I found him underwhelming — too nice, maybe. He lacked steel. His answers to most questions during hour-plus interview were vague, avoiding specifics. He couldn't be pinned down and I’m not sure if that was because he lacked sufficient knowledge of the issues or because he wanted to remain nebulous. I suspect the latter.

After participating in the South Carolina debate the night before, he arrived on a big purple tour bus with “Kasich” emblazoned on the side. When one of us zeroed in on something, he’d often say he couldn’t remember and call on one of the handlers named Chris who stood off behind me. Chris either didn’t answer, or if he did it was in such a low tone I couldn’t hear him. My digital voice recorder didn’t pick him up either.

My first question was about education, which had been brought up earlier. I told him I started teaching before there was a federal Department of Education and we got along just fine. He asked what I taught and I told him “US History, civics, and economics.” I said I retired early because there was so much paperwork and so many meetings required by federal regulations that I only spend half my time actually teaching, which is what I loved. I asked, would he cut the federal government by eliminating the US Department of Education? Well, he wouldn’t be pinned down. He said there had been votes on it in Congress but it never passed. Sun publisher Mark Guerringue pressed him saying, “So you would eliminate the Department of Education?”

Kasich paused, then said, “There would still be a framework there.” Then another long pause, after which he said, “I ain’t sayin’ any more than that. I am not gonna be Republican is gonna sit here and say ‘I’m going to eliminate the federal Department of Education.’ Sorry.”

“How about vouchers?” I said.

“But they’re not going to have any… The-the money’s gonna come here, okay?” Another pause. “I-I-I’m not gettin’ in… I’m not — I’m not goin’ there. I’m not goin’ to be… I’ve been through this once. I’m not havin’ people runnin’ around sayin’ ‘Oh they want to kill education!’ Ahh, vouchers and all that? I’m all for it. We voucher everything, ahh, vouchered in Ohio, ah, charter schools, but I want you to run the schools. If I’m president, I want you — I don’t want to run the schools…”

“And we could,” I said.

“Yeah,” He said, “Well, I hope. I would hope you would. I’m not — I mean I’m tellin’ ya, these schools are tough to change…”

“Oh yeah,” I said. 

Then he went on about legislation in Ohio that allowed state takeover of under-functioning schools and other matters. I felt satisfied to pin him down on his support for vouchers which, if passed federally, would effectively kill the teachers’ unions — the Democrat Party’s biggest single funders — and free public schools from their stranglehold.

Another questioner brought up Iran and I followed saying: “…When the Iran deal passed, it looked like Republicans in the Senate pretty much gave it to [Obama] by saying we don’t need a two-thirds majority vote to approve this and passed a bill saying…”

Senators Menendez and Corker wrote bill that caved in on Iran

“I called for that,” Kasich interrupted. “I said there was a way, I thought, that you could avoid the filibuster… but for some reason the Republicans didn’t do it. I can’t answer that question…” Then he called on Chris again who didn’t have an answer either

“If it’s a treaty,” I said, “the Constitution requires a two-thirds vote by the Senate, but Republicans passed a bill which allowed it to happen with a simple majority.”

“No,” he said, “I think what happened was they couldn’t have a vote on it because the Democrats were filibustering…” He said it was wrong to have an agreement without Congress voting on it, but he avoided addressing the Senate’s constitutional responsibility to approve or disapprove a treaty. “They didn’t have enough votes to get a vote,” he said.

“With a two-thirds majority,” I repeated. “Advise and consent…”

“Yeah,” he conceded. “It’s the way I’ve always thought it should be done.”

“That’s what the Constitution says…” I said yet again.

“…But they would never get to the point where they could have a vote because of the filibuster.”

“So they basically gave in,” I said, “by allowing it to be called something other than a treaty that would require…”

“No,” he interrupted again, “They tried but they couldn’t get the votes. Now they could have used the mechanism to say, no, it’s gotta be a 51 vote that gets us to the next issue but they couldn’t get it done, and I don’t know why they didn’t change that. I can’t answer it.”

Well, I’ll answer it even if Kasich won’t. I believe he was intentionally giving Republicans an out by citing procedural smokescreens and Democrat filibusters that blurred the Senate’s constitutional responsibility. Majority Republicans were complicit in allowing President Obama to circumvent the Constitution by calling a treaty an “Executive Agreement.” Kasich’s fellow establishment Republicans avoided a confrontation with an out-of-control executive as they have on so many other issues in the past seven years — either because they haven’t got the stones, or because they simply lack principles.

podcast of interview

That’s why the Republican base is so sick of the party establishment. That’s why they’re supporting outsiders like Trump and Cruz, and not insiders like Ohio Governor John Kasich.